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Biological Conservation

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Biological Conservation's content profile, based on 43 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Tracks, Maps and Gaps: A Testable Research Definition for Critical Chondrichthyan Areas, European Atlantic Insights

Renn, C.; Ciotti, B. J.; Sims, D. W.; Edwards, A.; Turner, R. A.; Hosegood, P.; Sheehan, E. V.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.01.722225 medRxiv
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Designing effective spatial management for chondrichthyans (sharks, skates, rays and chimaeras) requires incorporating critical areas, sites essential for population maintenance, such as reproductive and feeding areas. Yet most area-based measures have been developed without consideration of chondrichthyan habitat use. The Important Shark and Ray Area (ISRA) initiative has been pivotal in designating priority areas through a rigorous, consultative process. To complement this, our study offers researchers a testable definition for generating robust evidence to strengthen future critical area delineations and related management decisions. We define critical areas using three criteria: 1) relative frequency of use, (2) extended within-year occupancy and (3) repeated use across years. This framework enables objective comparison among candidate sites and is generalisable across different critical area types. The definition builds upon established early-life-stage habitat concepts and applies these to broader life-history functions. The utility of this framework is then demonstrated through a systematic review of contemporary peer-reviewed literature of critical chondrichthyan areas in the European Atlantic. The review highlighted 62 critical areas with Strong evidence and 41 areas of Moderate strength evidence, which informed the European Atlantic ISRA selection process. Research effort was concentrated in inshore areas, particularly around the British Isles and Portugal, with biases towards large, threatened and commercially valuable species, whilst chimaeras were notably underrepresented. Early-life stage areas were most frequently identified, whereas resting areas were rarely documented. Evidence patterns and biases are examined in the context of evolving critical area concepts to advance their development and improve the quality and breadth of future research. By outlining a testable definition, identifying key knowledge gaps, and proposing research and reporting guidelines, this work enhances the consistency, comparability, and spatial coverage of future chondrichthyan habitat research to support its application to conservation planning.

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Impact of Fragmentation on the Metapopulation Structure of wild olive

Abebe, A.; Crego, R.; Eichhorn, M.

2026-05-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.30.721863 medRxiv
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Habitat fragmentation disrupts metapopulation dynamics by altering environmental conditions and constraining demographic processes critical for persistence and recruitment. In the dry Afromontane forests of northern Ethiopia, we investigated how natural and anthropogenic drivers affect seedlings, saplings, and mature tree dynamics of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata across 34 patches. We used dynamic occurrence models to quantify effects of patch area, altitude, browsing, and disturbance. Our results indicate that high disturbance reduces seedling occurrence probability lower disturbance sites has seedling in 30% of survey plots, high disturbance would bring this down to 10% (median = -1.322, 95% CI: -2.703 to -0.283). Disturbance makes seedling less likely to persist, while large patch size help seedling persists (median = -0.93, 9 5 % CrI -1.87 - -0.02). For mature individuals, disturbance was the only significant predictor of occurrence probability, suggesting greater resistance to environmental and spatial variability compared to earlier life stages. These findings emphasize that while mature trees display resilience, the successful regeneration of Olea europaea is constrained by disturbance, but current level of browsing is not a threat. Management strategies for conservation should prioritise reducing disturbance through community engagement and forest stewardship to enhance regeneration potential and ensure long-term population viability.

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The lost vultures of Romania: reconstructing two centuries of decline from historical records (Gyps fulvus, Aegypius monachus, Neophron percnopterus, Gypaetus barbatus)

Osvath, G.; Denes, A. L.; Kovacs, Z.; Birau, A. C.; Papp, E.; Jako, G. V.; Zeitz, R.

2026-05-18 zoology 10.64898/2026.05.13.723308 medRxiv
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Romania represents one of the few European Union member states in which all four Old World vulture species historically maintained breeding populations: the Griffon Vulture (Gyps fulvus), Cinereous Vulture (Aegypius monachus), Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus) and Bearded Vulture (Gypaetus barbatus). Until the 2026 reintroduction efforts initiated by Foundation Conservation Carpathia and Rewilding Romania, Romania remained the last EU country whose former vulture guild had not been targeted for active recovery. Despite this exceptional significance in a European conservation context, no comprehensive synthesis of the historical and contemporary distribution of these species in Romania has been undertaken. We conducted a comprehensive review to gather all available vulture occurrence data and present a fully georeferenced database of 1,170 occurrence records spanning 1818-2025. We systematically searched museum collections, historical ornithological literature, modern field surveys and citizen-science platforms. The database documents substantial breeding populations across the Carpathian arc and Dobrogea until the early twentieth century, followed by near-total breeding collapse between the 1920s and 1960s driven by persecution, secondary poisoning and agrarian transformation. In total, 149 confirmed or probable breeding records have been documented for the four species combined, with the most recent confirmed breeding records dating to 1929 (Gyps fulvus), 1929 (Gypaetus barbatus), 1942 (Aegypius monachus) and 1966 (Neophron percnopterus). Non-breeding occurrences increase markedly after 2010, consistent with dispersal from expanding Balkan source populations. The F[a]g[a]ra {square} and Retezat Mountains emerge as the historically most important breeding strongholds for all four species. Our dataset constitutes the most detailed historical baseline currently available for vulture conservation in Romania and is intended to identify key historical sites with high potential for future reintroduction and recovery. Our results show that Romania historically supported the full guild of European obligate scavengers, and that its collapse occurred within barely four decades (1920s-1960s). The dataset highlights the value of reconstructing historical baselines in regions where functional extinction preceded the onset of modern monitoring, and provides an empirical foundation for reassembling a keystone scavenger guild at a continental scale.

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Landscape heterogeneity as a main driver of avian population dynamics

Malinowska, K.; Chodkiewicz, T.; Kuczynski, L.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726359 medRxiv
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The ongoing decline in biodiversity highlights the need for understanding the causes of population changes. This study uses 25-year, large-scale monitoring dataset to investigate the influence of climate and landscape structure on the annual population growth rates of 84 bird species across Poland. Our methodological framework involves the spatiotemporal decomposition of these environmental drivers to decouple demographic effects of long-term carrying capacities from the short-term effects of environmental perturbations. Using species-specific demographic models followed by a community-wide meta-analysis, we evaluated how individual species responses scale up to shape community-level dynamics. The results reveal significant variation in species-specific responses to individual drivers. At the community level, our findings suggest that bird populations are mainly regulated by the long-term spatial constraints rather than short-term disturbances. Persistent environmental heterogeneity had the strongest positive demographic effect on birds, followed by temperature, forest dominance over croplands, and precipitation. In contrast, rapid temporal shifts in environmental heterogeneity and precipitation anomalies negatively affected population growth, whereas urbanisation consistently exerted a negative effect across both spatiotemporal dimensions. Our results highlight the significance of protecting existing heterogeneous and ecotonal habitats, as well as the need to incorporate features that enhance habitat heterogeneity into urban development. Article impact statementPreserving heterogeneous habitats is essential for the conservation of bird populations.

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Extremely low effective population size in a captive-bred population: partial mitigation through management practices

Lamarins, A.; Waples, R. S.; Piironen, J.; Primmer, C. R.

2026-05-12 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.12.724519 medRxiv
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1Effective population size (Ne) is a critical parameter for evaluating the evolutionary and persistence potential of endangered populations and for designing sustainable conservation strategies. Captive breeding and release programs are widely used across taxa to reduce risk of extinction when natural reproduction is insufficient or no longer possible, making it essential to assess their consequences. We used the case study of the landlocked Saimaa salmon (Salmo salar), one of the most critically en-dangered salmonid populations in Europe, with unique evolutionary significance due to its isolation from other populations since the last glaciation. Using long-term demographic data (1969-2024) from wild-caught founders of a captive breeding and release program, we estimated the effective population size under multiple scenarios of variance in reproductive success. Across scenarios, Ne ranged from 33 to 81 individuals, representing 32%-75% of the census size. Captive breeding practices aimed at equalizing parental contributions during fertilization and early life stages increased Ne by 12% compared to natural reproductive conditions. However, variation in survival after early developmental stages, typically beyond direct management control, remained a key determinant of Ne. Despite recent increases in the number of founders, the population remains genetically vulnerable due to historical bottlenecks. These results highlight that while captive breeding programs can partially mitigate genetic risks, their effectiveness depends critically on both controlled and uncontrolled sources of variance in reproductive success. Strengthening such programs may require combining breeding management with habitat restoration and, where appropriate, genetic rescue to ensure the long-term evolutionary potential of such unique and endangered populations.

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Genomic indicators of risk and resilience in global leatherback turtle populations

Osipova, E.; Dutton, P. H.; Bentley, B. P.; Alvarez-Costes, S.; Phillips, K. F.; Adkins, J.; Agyekumhene, A.; Allman, P.; Barragan Rocha, A. R.; Chacon-Chaverri, D.; Duffy, D. J.; Formia, A.; Frey, A.; Gaos, A.; Hamilton, R.; Horne, J. B.; Honarvar, S.; LaCasella, E. L.; Lontoh, D.; Nel, R.; Ortega, A.; Pakiding, F.; Prasetyo, A. P.; Sarti Martinez, A. L.; Piedra-Chacon, R.; Tiwari, M.; Stewart, K. R.; Thome, J. C. A.; Velez-Carballo, E.; Martin, S. L.; Alexander, A.; Wallace, B. P.; Komoroske, L. M.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.15.725529 medRxiv
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Understanding the drivers of genomic health and their consequences for population viability is often overlooked but potentially important to effective conservation amidst the biodiversity crisis of the Anthropocene. Leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) populations have declined globally due to anthropogenic factors, with some populations losing over 90% of their abundance over the past 30-50 years. While conservation efforts have been successful in stabilizing some populations, others continue to decline, and the reasons for these differential trajectories remain unclear. To assess how recent demographic factors, such as population size and decline, influence population genomic health, we combined population monitoring information with medium depth whole-genome and reduced representation resequencing data from globally representative populations. We found that small-stable populations have lower genomic diversity and higher inbreeding than large declining populations, reflecting prolonged small population sizes and limited gene flow. Yet, small-stable populations also show evidence of deleterious allele purging, suggesting genetic resilience. This, combined with lack of detectable genomic erosion over the study period, provides hope for potential recovery of healthy leatherback populations provided that anthropogenic threats are effectively mitigated. However, potential time lags and possible recent increases in inbreeding among close relatives in recently declined populations warrant continued monitoring and assessment. Genomic and abundance-based metrics were less aligned following rapid population declines, emphasizing the different timescales of the evolutionary and demographic processes they reflect, respectively, and the strength in their complementary, integrative use for extinction risk assessments. This also supports that it is not too late to turn the tide for recently declined leatherback populations and that continued investment in conservation efforts and threat reductions are warranted. Collectively, our results highlight how recent and historical demography shapes current genomic health and recovery potential in leatherback turtles, aids understanding of current risks and informs future conservation and management strategies.

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Exploring sources of uncertainty in the estimate of waterfowl harvest in the United Kingdom

Ellis, M. B.; Lewis, H. M.; Cameron, T. C.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.724812 medRxiv
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There is an urgent need to gather data on harvest rates of waterbirds in Europe to assess the sustainability of hunting. Estimates of total waterbird harvest in the United Kingdom (UK) and the relative harvest of different huntable species come from two separate surveys, the Value of Shooting (PACEC 2014) and National Gamebag Census (NGC, Aebischer 2019), and these have been recently used to explore the likelihood of unsustainable harvests of wild waterbirds by UK hunters (Ellis and Cameron 2022; Madden et al., 2025). The reliability of these sustainability estimates depends on how representative the original surveys are of hunter behaviour and success. There are also 1-3 million released game-farm mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) that takes up considerable and unquantified proportions of the UK waterbird harvest. Here we explore uncertainties in the UK winter harvest of wild waterfowl by comparing estimates from the NGC dataset with those from the Crown Estate coastal hunting clubs, and a novel approach using analysis of social-media images (2019/20 to 2023/24). We explore the difference in species-specific harvest with and without the uncertainties in the number of released mallard and the total number of duck harvested in the UK. Waterbird harvest estimates differ markedly depending on the input dataset and whether released mallard are included in the analysis. Confidence intervals of each estimate are inflated by uncertainties in the number of released game-farm mallard contributing to, and the size of that national bag. Estimates extrapolated from social media suggest the national harvest of several species may be considerably larger than the corresponding NGC estimates (e.g. Teal *2.07 and gadwall *11.2), while mallard harvests away from formal shoots represented by NGC are significantly lower (*0.71). Excluding released mallard reduces the statistical estimate of total wild duck harvest by 56-63%, which would have biologically significant effects if realised.

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A spatial analysis of Common Pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance with reference to Protected Area coverage in England

Wilde, J. A.; Ozsanlav-Harris, L.; Madden, J.

2026-05-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.06.722883 medRxiv
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The release of tens of millions of common pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) across the UK for shooting may pose an ecological risk to native species and sensitive habitats, particularly if the birds move into protected areas (PAs) such as Special Areas of Conservation (SAC), Special Protection Areas (SPA), and Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). The extent of this ecological risk depends on the abundance of pheasants in these sensitive sites, especially if they are attracted there after the shooting season when game management efforts to retain the birds cease. We used relative pheasant abundance measures derived from British Trust for Ornithology bird atlas data from 3793 2km tetrads across four English counties (Berkshire, Cornwall, Devon, and Hertfordshire) to determine if pheasants preferentially disperse into or reside in areas with greater PA coverage. We analysed relative abundance in both the winter shooting season and the breeding season using a Bayesian occupancy-abundance model, controlling for habitat type and diversity. Our results showed a strong influence of habitat on pheasant abundance, consistent with known habitat preferences. However, we found no evidence of a relationship between relative pheasant abundance and the proportion of ecologically relevant PA coverage in a tetrad. This lack of a relationship was consistent across all four counties and across both the winter and breeding seasons. Our finding suggests that common pheasants do not preferentially disperse into or reside in protected areas compared to surrounding, unprotected land, suggesting that the ecological impacts caused by released pheasants are no more likely to occur in protected areas than in non-protected areas.

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Remote underwater photographs reveal environmental correlations and patterns in reef manta ray habitat use in Laamu Atoll, Maldives

Guilford-Pearce, B. J.; Staiger, M.; Stevens, G. M. W.; Doherty, P. D.; Ali, J.

2026-05-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.09.723939 medRxiv
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Reef manta rays (Mobula alfredi) are threatened by fishing and other anthropogenic threats. Which, when coupled with conservative life history traits, have made this species vulnerable to extinction. Spatiotemporal ecological knowledge, such as site fidelity and visitation patterns to key aggregation sites, are imperative for effective conservation management of M. alfredi. A novel method of environmental sensing, remote underwater photo systems (RUPs), was employed to understand drivers of M. alfredi habitat use and resighting patterns. RUPs were deployed at four cleaning sites around Laamu Atoll, Maldives. Between March 2021 and May 2023, 455,458 photos were analysed. Generalised linear models revealed increases in M. alfredi presence in response to high chlorophyll-a concentrations, low illumination moon states, the Southwest Monsoon, and in the morning, while human presence had no effect. Branchial spot patterns allowed for 81 M. alfredi individuals to be identified, from 629 sightings, representing 51.59% of Laamu Atolls previously identified population (n = 157). Cleaning stations are visited more intensively during periods of increased productivity of the Southwest Monsoon, likely in response to greater foraging opportunities near the study areas. Additionally, moon state, used as a proxy for tidal strength, was associated with increased visitation during new moon periods, suggesting that weaker tidal states may facilitate presence. These data support integrating RUPs with observational surveys to improve inferences about habitat use and our understanding of cleaning sites frequented by M. alfredi. This study aims to inform the implementation of Laamu Atolls first marine protected area management plan.

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Addressing Data Fragmentation in Biodiversity: A Workflow for integrated Species Distribution Models

Perrin, S. W.; Adjei, K. P.; Mostert, P.; Togunov, R. R.; Herfindal, I.; Topper, J. P.; Grytnes, J.-A.; Chipperfield, J.; O'Hara, R. B.; Finstad, A. G.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.721053 medRxiv
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AimA comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of biodiversity is hindered by fragmented datasets, sampling biases, and inconsistent observation protocols. Here, we present a workflow that integrates disparate datasets to produce large scale maps of biodiversity metrics as a basis for management-relevant information tools. We use integrated species distribution modeling (iSDM) to account for sampling biases and disparate data collection techniques, taking advantage of the vast numbers of open datasets available in data aggregators like GBIF. LocationNorway (excluding Svalbard and Jan Mayen) TaxonVascular plants MethodsThe workflow consists of four main steps: data acquisition, data integration, integrated species distribution modelling (iSDM), and the production of derived outputs. Input data include structured surveys, opportunistic observations, and environmental covariates. These are standardised and integrated into a point-processed based iSDM framework to produce species richness maps, associated uncertainties, and sampling effort maps. The outputs are further processed to identify biodiversity hotspots or to summarise species-environment relationships. The workflow used vascular plant data from Norway, combining occurrence-only and presence-absence datasets with environmental covariates. Outputs were generated at a spatial resolution of 500 x 500 meters, balancing accuracy, computational feasibility and relevance for management decisions. High-performance computing resources were utilized for model fitting and predictions. A subset of available data was used to validate the species richness maps. ResultsWe produced detailed maps of species richness, uncertainties and sampling intensity across Norways heterogeneous landscape, incorporating 1218 species in our final results. The species richness patterns highlight patterns consistent with previous mapping efforts. Validation showed an increase in model accuracy when compared to models which did not use an iSDM framework. The workflow highlights limitations in the infrastructure of the currently openly accessible data, particularly the need for more structured presence-absence datasets and standardized metadata. Main conclusionsThis study underscores the potential of workflows that integrate disparate datasets for biodiversity modeling. To maximize accuracy and utility, future efforts should focus on improving data standardization, the publication and collection of more structured data, and fostering data-sharing collaborations. Advances in the workflow itself, including optimising modelling covariates and integrating more comprehensive spatio-temporal aspects, will also increase the relevance of the outputs. These advances will increase our ability to estimate species richness with a precision and accuracy that can reliably inform conservation and management decisions.

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Potential for Climate Change induced extinction of the Sky Island Species Mount Graham Red Squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis)

Gibson, E.; Kantar, M. B.; Runck, B.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.725054 medRxiv
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Sky islands are high-elevation ecosystems surrounded by lowland habitats that create isolated environments with distinct climatic conditions. These factors have driven the evolution of many endemic species, separated from their larger, contiguous populations. An Individual-Based Model (IBM) was used to simulate population dynamics by modeling the behaviors and interactions of Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis (Mount Graham Red Squirrel) a subspecies of the American red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) that is endemic to the Pinaleno Mountains in southeastern Arizona. This approach can help predict future population trends based on historical species data leading to better conservation decisions. Using species-specific ecological preferences--including temperature, precipitation, and vegetation indices (NDVI)--an IBM was developed to simulate population dynamics and spatial distribution projections through 2100. Climate change projections, based on the best- and worst-case scenarios outlined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment, were incorporated to assess potential future population trends under changing environmental conditions. The population faces a 45-62% probability of extinction by 2100, with a significant risk of extinction within the next 50 years. A translocation experiment was conducted to evaluate the viability of relocating individuals to the Chiricahua Mountains, another sky island with a larger habitable area. However, the risk of extinction remains even higher (87-89%) due to environmental disturbances affecting both the Chiricahua and Pinaleno regions. This highlights the challenges of conservation efforts in the face of climate change and emphasizes the need for targeted management strategies to preserve this critically endangered subspecies.

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Human land-use change drives co-occurrence of ecologically similar avian aerial insectivores in Southeast Asia

Garvin, A. M.; Sudoko, S. S.; Yahya, N. K.; Maruji, N. A.; Chai, R. R.; bin Dakog, K. A.; Kass, J. M.; Scordato, E. S.

2026-05-22 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.20.726292 medRxiv
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AimHuman land-use change contributes to biodiversity declines, but also creates new niches that facilitate novel biotic interactions. These interactions can reshape ecological communities and ecosystem function, yet remain poorly understood. Swiftlets and swallows in Southeast Asia present a classic example: coexistence is facilitated by fine-scale diet partitioning, with population sizes historically limited by available nesting substrates. However, several species now nest on manmade structures, particularly "nest farms" built to harvest edible swiftlet nests. We evaluated whether land-use change, especially the spread of nest farms, is leading to breakdowns in niche partitioning and increased competition among six sympatric swiftlets and swallows. LocationNorthern Borneo MethodsWe calculated geographic niche overlap using species distribution models (SDMs) with different environmental predictors, hypothesizing greater overlap when land-use variables were included. We then implemented joint species distribution models (JSDMs) to partition shared environmental responses from potential biotic interactions, predicting that competition would emerge as negative residual correlations. We used sightings from citizen-science datasets and structured surveys to evaluate the influence of climate, land-use, nest farms, morphology, and foraging behavior on species occurrences. ResultsSDMs that included land-use variables showed high niche overlap, suggesting that human activity homogenizes niches. The optimal JSDM, based on structured survey data, identified distance to nest farms as the strongest predictor of occurrence for all species, with species showing both positive and negative responses. Morphology and behavior had small effects, and residual correlations were weak, indicating limited unexplained biotic interactions. Main conclusionsHuman activity, through the creation of artificial nesting sites, broadly drives co-occurrence of swallows and swiftlets across our study region. These effects appear to operate primarily through environmental filtering rather than direct competition. Our findings reveal substantial and complex impacts of land-use change and anthropogenic nest sites on the distribution and composition of aerial insectivore communities.

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Landscape-scale predictors of mammal abundance and species richness across an extensive Queensland tropical savannas gradient

Kutt, A. S.; Fraser, H. S.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.1101/2025.09.22.677950 medRxiv
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The small mammals in the tropical savannas of northern Australia, have undergone a degree of change in recent decades, best documented in the Northern Territory. Data is limited from northern Queensland and though the same trends are assumed, the topographic and climatic features differ substantially. In this study we examined data systematically collected from 725 sites between 1998-2012 in three bioregions representing a climatic gradient: from semi-arid to monsoon tropical savannas. We investigated via information-theoretic models and model averaging, the relationship between five mammal groupings and three landscape variables (fractional cover green, elevation and vegetation diversity) to elucidate any consistent or different patterns in the mammal fauna. Key patterns included relationships with increasing elevation (critical weight range species richness positively associated with elevation, rodent species richness negatively associated), increasing rodent and dasyurid species richness with vegetation diversity, and lower macropod and dasyurids abundance with increasing fractional cover green. These relationships underscore a need to consider mammal conservation in Queensland with more nuance than in the more topographically inert Northern Territory. Management strategies need to be more attuned to taxonomic and regional differences, to prevent perverse outcomes.

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Home range size and population density are negatively correlated in wild felids globally

Bugaud, N.; Anile, S.; Moraru, A.; Devillard, S.

2026-05-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.16.725626 medRxiv
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AimHome range size is a fundamental aspect of animal spatial ecology, and understanding the factors that shape it is important for conservation purposes. Several hypotheses, based on energy needs or competition, assume that home range size negatively correlates with population density. However, this pattern has been little investigated on a global scale, and it remains unclear whether it would stand at both intra- and interspecific levels. To fill this gap, we conducted a global exploration of this relationship at the level of an animal family. Location: Global. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Wild Felidae. MethodsIndividual home range size records (n = 1022) and population density estimates (n = 1061) were retrieved from the literature for 23 felid species across the world. We first investigated the interspecific relationship by modelling the median home range size of a species as a function of its median population density. To study the intraspecific relationship, we spatially merged data points based on their spatial or temporal proximity. We then applied a mixed-effects linear model using species as a random factor. ResultsWe found that home range size was negatively associated with population density, at both interspecific (-1.323 {+/-} 0.180, p < 0.001) and intraspecific levels (-0.569 {+/-} 0.201 to - 0.537 {+/-} 0.201 depending on the merging approach, p < 0.01). Landscape features were also predictors of home range size, without confounding the effect of population density. Main conclusionsSeveral processes likely govern the relationship between home range size and population density: differences in body mass between species may drive the interspecific relationship, whereas the intraspecific pattern is probably explained by conspecific competition. Although more research is needed to quantify their relative contribution, our study highlights a worldwide ecological pattern that exists at multiple biological levels in the wild.

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Navigating a dynamic winterscape: habitat composition and individual variability shape daily movement in wintering common cranes in western India

Baraiya, H. L.; Baroth, A.; Kumar, R. S.

2026-05-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.17.725127 medRxiv
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BackgroundWintering migratory birds must balance energetic requirements, resource availability, and disturbance in increasingly human-modified landscapes. However, individual-level variability in daily movement and winter space use remains poorly understood in South Asian populations of the common crane. We investigated how seasonal dynamics, landscape composition, and individual differences structure winter movement ecology in a semi-arid agro-wetland system in western India. MethodsWe analysed high-resolution GPS telemetry data from multiple tagged cranes tracked across three consecutive winters. Daily movement distances were modelled using mixed-effects approaches to partition variance within and among individuals and among winters. Daily movement trajectories were evaluated using non-linear temporal terms. Landscape predictors, including cropland proportion, built-up area, and habitat heterogeneity, were incorporated to assess environmental drivers. Winter range distributions were estimated using autocorrelation-informed kernel density estimation within a continuous-time movement modelling framework. ResultsMost variation in daily movement occurred within individuals rather than among them, indicating strong behavioural flexibility. Interannual differences explained substantial variance, suggesting sensitivity to changing environmental conditions. Daily movement distance followed a non-linear seasonal pattern consistent with shifts in the profitability of agricultural resources over winter. Cropland proportion and landscape evenness were negatively associated with movement distance, whereas a high proportion of built-up areas increased daily movement distance, reflecting a trade-off between resource concentration and anthropogenic disturbance. Winter range distribution size varied markedly both within individuals across years and among individuals within seasons. ConclusionWinter movement and space use in common cranes are predominantly context-dependent and environmentally driven. Seasonal dynamics, agricultural landscapes, and human disturbance jointly structure movement patterns, with limited but consistent individual differences. Multi-year, individual-based telemetry provides a comprehensive understanding of winter spatial strategies in dynamic semi-arid agro-wetland systems.

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The dispersal of released pheasants and the risk of their intrusion into English protected areas

Madden, J. R.; Sage, R. B.; Wilde, J. A.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722670 medRxiv
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Large-scale annual releases of pheasants Phasianus colchicus and their subsequent management for recreational shooting create various ecological impacts in the UK. While effects at release sites are fairly well understood, dispersing birds may influence areas farther away. If they enter ecologically important but sensitive protected areas (PAs), any negative impacts could be especially harmful. Using tracking data, from 766 birds across 10 sites, we estimated survival and dispersal of released pheasants and applied these patterns to gamebird release records near English PAs to gauge intrusion risk. Of 2,885 registered release sites, just over half lay within 2 km of a PA. A large number of shoots release relatively few birds while a small number release many birds. Thus, numbers expected to enter a particular PA likely depend both on the size of releases and proximity to the PA. We estimate that, at a national level, a maximum of between 525,000 and 784,000 pheasants might be found within PAs very soon after release, representing around 1.7% of all the pheasants released annually. This number declines over the months after release until in February, we estimate that there are between 131,000 and 196,000 pheasants (0.4% of the total release) might be found within PAs. The critical metric by which ecological damage might occur is their density within PAs. Mean densities soon after release averaged 12.0 birds/ha in PAs within 250 m of release sites. This density declined markedly both in time (as birds died) and space (as they moved further from the pen as potential areas increased). By November, densities in PAs 500-1000m from release sites peaked at 0.5 birds/ha, falling to 0.16 birds/ha in February. These estimated densities are around two orders of magnitude lower than those known to cause strong, lasting impacts within release pens. The results are subject to assumptions about movement behaviour, game management and bias in registration. Despite these constraints, considerable local variation exists, with a minority of high-volume release sites very near PAs posing the greatest potential ecological risk.

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The centrality of ecotones: How scale, sex, and ontogeny shape the spatial ecology of a solitary carnivore

Glover-Kapfer, P.; Song, Q.; Erb, J.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.01.722308 medRxiv
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ContextAnimals balance resource acquisition with risk mitigation. These trade-offs are rarely uniform, being mediated by spatial scale, demographic traits, and environmental constraints. Understanding these divergent spatial behaviors is critical for management across human-dominated landscapes. ObjectivesWe investigated how sexual dimorphism and ontogeny interact with landscape structure to influence scale-dependent resource selection. Specifically, we sought to determine how these demographic factors mediate spatial trade-offs between optimal foraging habitats, top-down intraguild predation risk, and bottom-up severe winter weather. MethodsWe examined the spatial ecology of a solitary carnivore, the bobcat (Lynx rufus), across a heterogeneous, human-modified landscape in northern Minnesota, USA. Using spatial data derived from harvested adult and juvenile individuals, we evaluated multi-scale selection relative to land cover, structural ecotones, intraguild predator activity, and winter severity. ResultsHabitat selection was scale-dependent and partitioned demographically. Whereas bobcats universally selected for ecotones and avoided homogeneous open habitats at fine scales, responses to other features diverged by sex and age. Females actively avoided areas with high coyote activity and freezing temperatures; males exhibited high risk tolerance, apparently indifferent to coyote activity and tolerant of freezing temperatures. We identified a distinct ontogenetic spatial shift among females. Subordinate juveniles were competitively excluded from optimal natural ecotones, forcing them into riskier, anthropogenic agricultural edges. In contrast, adult females optimized foraging opportunities by selecting productive ecotones at the intersection of woody vegetation and semi-natural grasslands. ConclusionsOur findings demonstrate that habitat selection is not a static species-level trait, but instead a dynamic process resulting from the interaction between ontogeny, sex, and landscape heterogeneity. The reliance of vulnerable demographic groups on marginal or anthropogenic habitats highlights how human land-use changes can inadvertently produce ecological winners and losers within the same species. Consequently, landscape management and conservation planning for solitary carnivores must shift from broad, population-wide habitat prescriptions to strategies that explicitly accommodate the divergent spatial requirements of specific demographic cohorts.

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Rethinking the movement ecology of Andean bears: temperature-driven cathemerality and seasonal space-use cycles

Castellanos, F. X.; Jackson, D.; Mezzini, S.; Brito, J.; Castellanos, A.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.11.720697 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus), South Americas only ursid, is one of the worlds most elusive large mammals, making movement data collection exceptionally rare. Addressing this gap, we present the largest telemetry dataset ever assembled, spanning 19 individuals tracked across three Ecuadorian National Parks over two decades, paired with a novel analytical approach. MethodsWe integrated Continuous-Time Movement Models (CTMM), Auto-correlated Kernel Density Estimators (AKDEs), Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and a diel niche theoretical framework to mitigate biases previously unaccounted for the species in telemetry studies. Fine-scale AKDEs and non-linear movement metrics were calculated to understand seasonal space use and movement behaviors. Speed and diffusion from CTMM and behavioral states from HMM were modelled with environmental covariates to investigate which conditions shape diel and seasonal activity. ResultsPopulation mean home range was 138.2 km2 (95% Confidence Intervals 78.7-225.5), with males (239.8 km2; 182.8-307.5), significantly exceeding females (58.5 km2; 35.5-90.3). Notably, three females exhibited ranges comparable to some males. Weekly and monthly AKDEs uncovered cyclic home range dynamics potentially driven by resource availability, with contractions around corn harvests, mortino and achupalla fruiting, and expansions during paramo transitions. Decoupling speed from diffusion rates showed region-specific behaviors: intensive patch exploitation in Llanganates, broad exploratory ranging in Cayambe-Coca, and suppressed female locomotion in Cotacachi-Cayapas. Statistical analyses identified temperature as a key diel modulator and precipitation as the seasonal driver. Foraging probability increased between 2:00-6:00, large displacements between 7:00-14:00, and nocturnal movement rose significantly under colder conditions. Across diel hypothesis frameworks, bears were classified as cathemeral rather than strictly diurnal, corroborated by camera-trap records from Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. ConclusionsWe propose a cathemeral diel phenotype that responds to thermal fluctuations and situates Andean bears within a broader ursid context of thermoregulatory niche plasticity. This dataset reveals unprecedented resolution of regional and sex specific behaviors that will facilitate and accelerate comparative studies in rapidly changing Andean landscapes. By releasing this long-term dataset as an open resource, we provide a foundation for climate-resilient conservation strategies. More broadly, we advocate for data democratization and invite collaboration.

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Human and pet multimodal cues intensify wildlife fear responses

Hirobe, K.; Senzaki, M.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.725053 medRxiv
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O_LIFear of humans can drive persistent changes in wildlife behavioural and life-history traits, with cascading effects on entire ecosystems. Human multimodal cues and pet cues may influence impact of such fear, yet no study has tested how wildlife fear responses change when human acoustic cues and pet visual and acoustic cues are added to human visual cues. Filling this gap is important for managing human and pet outdoor activities while conserving wildlife. C_LIO_LIHere, with dogs representing the pet, we tested the effects of human and dog cues on fear responses of wild sika deer (Cervus nippon yesoensis) in approximately 800 km2 area, northern Japan, using alert distance (AD) and flight initiation distance (FID). First, we measured AD/FID with an approaching surveyor alone and with additional cues. Then, we fitted linear mixed-effects models while controlling for key covariates. C_LIO_LIFrom analyses with 266 observations, AD was estimated at 80.0 m with the human visual cue alone, and dog barking increased AD by 18.4m. FID was estimated at 57.1 m with the human visual cue alone, and human voice and the dog decoy increased FID by 11.3m and by 8.5 m, respectively. C_LIO_LIThese results demonstrate that human multimodal cues and pet cues can increase prey fear responses. Our findings also suggest that dog walking may expose wildlife to simultaneous human and pet cues more consistently than predator co-occurrence typically does in nature. The increase in FID with human acoustic cues, in contrast to previous studies, suggests that animals may shift cue weighting depending on predator species, potentially using human voices to help identify the threat as human. C_LIO_LIPrevious studies show that multimodal predator cues increase prey fear responses, and our findings extend this flamework to fear responses towards humans. Our findings can inform more tolerant management of human recreation and pet walking in sensitive areas. Reducing human and pet cues through signage, guidance, and zoning may prevent flight and associated energy expenditure, whereas mitigating vigilance may require behavioural guidance and spacing between pet-walking visitors. Overall, shaping how humans and pets behave may be more practical than blanket restriction. C_LI

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Evaluating non-lethal tissue suitability for telomere length measurement in the Japanese eel

Moriguchi, Y.; Kimura, S. S.; Kume, M.; Takagi, J.; Uno, Y.; Kanoh, J.; Mitamura, H.

2026-05-13 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.05.09.723945 medRxiv
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Telomere length (TL) is increasingly used in ecology as a biomarker of individual quality and environmental stress, yet research on non-model species with complex life histories remains limited. Because TL varies among tissues and across ages in a species-specific manner, identifying non-lethal tissues that reliably reflect whole-organism telomere dynamics is essential for longitudinal telomere studies in the field. This study aimed to evaluate tissue-specific TL in Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica), an endangered catadromous fish. We first mapped the chromosomal distribution of telomeric sequences using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH), the first application of this method in this species. We then tested whether muscle and caudal fin, which can be sampled easily and non-lethally, can serve as suitable proxy tissues for TL measurements in wild individuals. Relative telomere length (RTL) was quantified by qPCR in blood, brain, caudal fin, gonads, heart, liver, and muscle. FISH analysis confirmed telomeric repeats at all chromosomal ends, with only weak interstitial signals on three chromosomal pairs unlikely to affect qPCR-based estimates. A generalized additive mixed model and Wilcoxons signed-rank tests revealed significant inter-tissue differences: RTL was shortest in the brain and muscle and longest in liver, blood and caudal fin. Muscle and caudal fin RTL were significantly correlated with RTL in many other tissues, supporting their use as proxy tissues for longitudinal TL monitoring, including responses to environmental variation. Both total length and age were tested as explanatory variables for RTL, and the model including total length showed a better fit than the age-based model. Non-linear relationships between RTL and total length observed in several tissues suggest physiological shifts associated with growth and sexual differentiation. Overall, these findings advance understanding of telomere dynamics in eels and establish muscle and caudal fin as suitable tissues for repeated, non-lethal TL assessment in ecological and conservation contexts.